The great unknown is the baseball itself. Why can't it jump to, say, 1.52 per game in October? It nearly did last year. That sounds astronomical, and it is, but that's what makes it bold, right? Teams averaged 1.22 homers per game during the regular season. If you get a pitch to hit, you better really hit it.įor this bold prediction, I'm going to say MLB will set a new record postseason home run rate this year, eclipsing last year's 1.50 per team per game rate. They might be your only way to score in some cases. In a few cases the home run rate actually went up even though run scoring went down, meaning homers take on added importance in October.
Run scoring tends to drop significantly in the postseason. It was an unusual year with the pandemic and expanded postseason field and all that, but they were postseason games, and the ball flew out of the park at a record pace. Teams averaged 1.50 homers per game last postseason, which is bonkers. Last year was, by far, the most home run happy postseason on record. Good pitchers give up home runs all the time! What they usually don't give up are long rallies on multiple base hits and walks. Then, every postseason, it's Home Run Derby in October. MLB will set another postseason home run recordĮvery year, like clockwork, it is said you can't rely on home runs in the postseason, because the pitching is too good and you can't hit home runs against good pitchers. Anyway, let's do some postseason bold predictions, shall we? Let's get to it.Ĥ. Or at least that's what I tell myself to feel better. My preseason bold predictions weren't great (I nailed that Shohei Ohtani prediction though) and my second-half bold predictions were worse, but my motto is if you get a lot of bold predictions correct, you weren't bold enough. It's like the baseball gods know what the television networks crave.
So even though the two Wild Card Games were unsettled going into Game 162, we still wound up with Yankees vs.
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